Tuesday, 5 January 2010

Top Ten for 2010

Welcome to my new Scottish politics blog! I've never blogged before, but it's time to scratch that itch. Will anyone take any notice? We'll see....

I thought I'd kick off with my top 10 political predictions for 2010.

1. David Cameron becomes PM after Labour are annihilated in England. Majority of 29.

2. Labour win the popular vote in Scotland, but an inevitably-marginalised SNP do better than expected with 13 seats.

3. The Conservatives double their Scottish representation with 2 seats and instal Lord McLetchie as their colonial governor.

4. The increasingly pointless LibDems are squeezed north and south of the border, with resultant pressure on Clegg and Tavish.

5. Expenses fallout claims the egregious Eric Joyce MP, with the SNP as beneficiary.

6. Cameron introduces Calman-lite, with no meaningful power being transferred, under advice from Lord Forsyth

7. Brown is replaced by Harman, with none of the young guns being willing to be leader at the start of an inevitable 8-12 year spell in the wilderness.

8. A Labour MSP crosses the floor to join the the SNP.

9. The primary Scottish political issue becomes, once more, democratic deficit and the Labour party get on the devo-max bandwagon thus ensuring a Holyrood majority in favour of it.

10. A record number of Scots decline to pay television tax in response to the BBC's increasingly hysterical pro-union bias.

Comments welcome!!

R of S


  1. Welcome to the blogosphere RoS, I've added a link to your site at Brigadoon :o)

    Some plausible predictions in there. I suspect the LibDems won't be squeezed where it matters though, i.e. in the number of MPs they return. They must surely be focussing their campaign funds/efforts on their existing seats, most of which are rock-solid LibDem territory, plus a small number of target seats. In our wonderful democracy it won't matter that they poll under 15% across Scotland, they will still end up with a good number of MPs, probably comparable to an SNP receiving twice as many votes across the country and certainly way more than the Tories can dream of managing.

  2. Hi R-o-S,

    Well there are some things to ponder in that list. Let me comment on just a couple.

    Firstly, I agree entirely that there will be a large Tory majority after the general election, and recall the last year of John Major's premiership where the BBC and others has Scots believing that another Tory victory was almost on the cards when in fact Tony Blair went on to a victory of historic dimensions. The revulsion of English public opinion against Gordon Brown is just not penetrating the Scottish media, for the obvious reasons of political bias intent on marginalising the SNP.

    Secondly, do you really think an English Tory government will introduce Calman Lite? I don't. I think they will seek to undermine Scottish devolution at every turn and might even repatriate some powers. Remember, within the Scottish Tories themselves there is still a strong anti-devolution sentiment. How much stronger must that be amongst their English MP's?

    Much luck with the blog. I've never really been tempted myself, but am glad of the opportunity to comment on others'.

    Happy New Year,


  3. Welcome, you sound like a man after my own heart.

    tend to think Tories will kick Calman into long grass; 'need to focus on key issues.....'

  4. Thanks Forfar-loon - you are probably right about the Libs. Still, they're definitely on the slide and Tavish isn't doing well - in my opinion of course.

    Rab - it will be very interesting to see what happens if Labour replace Brown. If he replaced pre-election with, say, Miliband, then that may mitigate the annihiliation in Englandshire but will help the SNP in Scotland - there is in my opinion a fair chunk of 'soft' Labour vote who are voting for Brown because they don't like seeing one of ours being bullied by a bunch of public schoolboy Tories. Those votes may go Nat-wards/not turn out if Brown isn't the Labour candidate.

    Strathturret - I hope you're right. That is the dream scenario for me - a bunch of posh Englishmen loftily telling us we can't have any more power. That would also harden Scottish labour attitudes per point 9 above.

    All - thanks for your comments!

  5. R-o-S
    If London-controlled Scottish Labour went for Devo-Max, that would be a huge moment. As a supporter of independence, I would still take that. It would take us well down the road to what it truly needed. The thing with Devo-Max is that it would heighten the contradictions within the Union, not reduce them. Calls for an English Parliament would certainly (and rightly) increase. A small step from that to Independence.

  6. R-o-S I've only just discovered your blog (mea culpa) and have enjoyed what I've read so far. I love the idea of the Scottish Government making it a matter of choice in paying the TV licence fee...but am puzzled as to who might be the Labour MSP who would cross to the SNP...for the life of me I can't think of one with either the necessary intelligence or courage...cheers nostress